Market Outlook

Prices will shift to a softer tone in coming weeks, even though seasonal trends call for a more firm tone going into May. Retail demand for Ribeyes has softened, which, along with modest Foodservice demand, will keep prices on the defensive.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Strips appear to be the middle meat of choice at Retail, which will keep demand and prices well supported.

Prices will trade with a steady tone in coming weeks, respecting seasonal price trends. Tenderloin demand has moderated somewhat in recent weeks, however buyers will be willing to step back in at any price set backs.

Prices will continue to range trade in coming weeks, defying the seasonal trend for values to gradually increase. Grilling demand will be a bit slower to develop this year, keeping prices more restrained.

Prices will trade steady in coming weeks, even though the seasonal trend is for values to soften going into May. Retail buyers have a preference for value items outside of the ground beef complex, which will keep Top Butts in higher demand.

Prices will shift to a softer tone going into May, somewhat contrary to the seasonal trend for values to strengthen this time of the year. Retail demand ahead of the upcoming grilling season will be slow to develop for Briskets, keeping prices subdued in the near term.

Prices will maintain a neutral tone over the next few weeks, respecting seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand for Flap Meat will be uneven at best, keeping prices restrained.

Prices will continue to take on a strong tone going into May. The normal seasonal trend for Skirt Meat prices to rally will be reinforced by strong demand from domestic marketing channels.

Prices will take on a softer tone over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Round subprimals tend to seasonally soften going into the first half of May as availability increases.

Prices will take on a steady tone in coming weeks, largely following seasonal trends. Chuck supplies have improved as buyers shift preferences away from roasting meats to grilling items, putting more raw material in the hands of further processors for grinding purposes.

Prices will continue to show a balanced tone going into May. Featuring activity at Retail will be modest, putting more loads on the spot market available for purchase.

The tone surrounding WOGs is steady with paid prices crossing our desk within a narrow range of supportive price points. Asked prices are situated at, and slightly above, listed levels with supplies termed as adequate. Bone-in breasts and front halves wind down under an uneventful market backdrop. Those with retail exposure maintain an optimistic grasp on spot production.

Boneless breasts are rated as at least steady overall. Spot offerings are adequate in matching current needs. That being said, some players suggest that medium-sized offerings are slightly less visible than they have been at the week’s outset. Asked prices range from supportive to slightly higher values.

Wings of all sizes are well-established. As today’s tone suggests, some players attribute the current market scenario to a lack of underlying supply, while others are quick to suggest that demand is seasonally active here in late April. The tender complex falls short of current needs. Recent low-volume trade, in conjunction with premium-facing bids, give way to a full-steady rating.

Those in pursuit of legs, leg quarters, and drumsticks uncover their full needs without trouble at price points which lend support to today’s unchanged quotations. Thighs are well-cleared and deserve a steady rating. Players with export exposure south of the border take a more surefooted approach at the negotiation table. Leg meat is steady, while recent bookings of thigh meat paint a steady to full-steady picture to this line.

Recent notices of HPAI outbreaks have done little to move the needle on Turkey Markets. Despite the added risk, prices have remained largely flat, and given current market conditions, we see no reason for them to deviate from this trend. In the near term, prices are likely to stay flat or even dip slightly.

Breast markets will remain steady, and follow along the trajectory as the underlying Whole Bird Market.

Prices will continue to range trade over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal trends. Retail featuring of bacon will continue to moderate, keeping prices in check heading into May.

Prices will take on a balanced tone in coming weeks, respecting seasonal price trends for the back half of April. Demand for loins will begin to accelerate heading into May, however conversion capacity is strong and will ensure supplies are adequate to meet demand.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Retail demand will remain strong and cold storage supplies are at the smallest level in over ten years, which will keep prices well supported.

Prices will remain supported going into May due to lower pork production, higher featuring of Boneless Butts by retailers, low cold storage supplies, and strong demand from export markets.

Prices will continue to trade steady in coming weeks, following seasonal trends. While demand from Mexico for bone-in hams will remain very strong, overall supplies of hams will be adequate to keep prices in balance.

As anticipated, there were no changes made to the assessment despite the ongoing, firm bias in the market for imported, farm-raised shrimp. While costs have risen, and reports suggest future arrivals have even higher costs basis attached, importers are cautious and largely holding the line on price given the current level of demand. White shrimp replacement pricing has strengthened sharply.

Reports suggest that it has become increasingly difficult to replace shrimp due to a supply balance overseas. Supplies of 4-6 and 6-8 shrimp have declined, along with 16/20 and smaller counts.

Fishing is almost done in Mexico, and demand remains lackluster. Larger sizes remain tight, and buyers hope that the last fishing trips produced these desired sizes.

The season is closed in Brazil, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The season in the Bahamas and Florida closed on March 31st. Inventory levels have been cleared by significant amounts due to customers shifting from Canadian to Spiny Lobster. Prices on Spiny Lobster still represent an excellent value to it’s northern cousins, but the differential is decreasing. Short Term: Steady Pricing, trending to firm.

The Canadian season had ended but catches are still taking place in Maine. Prices are only getting firmer on an already elevated Lobster tails and tail meat market. Short Term: Firm Prices

The Canadian season had ended but catches are still taking place in Maine. Prices are now rising on Lobster tails and tail meat. We have small quantities of different size tails and meat to last through the new season in May. Short Term: Firm to upward Pricing

5-8 snow crab out of the Gulf continues to adjust slightly higher; some still higher offers are also noted. Current pricing represents 2024 product. Gulf 8s have been reinstated. Gulf 10s are reported to be available in the market as well, however, pricing and availability is very spotty, and quotations have not yet been established. Harvesting in Newfoundland has started, but there has not been enough product in the U.S. market to establish market quotations yet. Short Term: Upward undertone in Price

Prices are stable on raw materials overseas. With slower demand and higher inventories for domestic Tuna, the market remains soft at current values. Prices are expected to start going up towards the summer months due to grilling season. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Limited raw materials and higher freight costs have caused prices to firm up. Some packers were given lower anti-dumping rates making them eligible to sell to the USA market. Because there are more packers, prices will be limited in how high they can go, but they are rising nonetheless. Short Term: Prices increasing

The Keta Salmon market has seen a slight increase due to the USA’s expanded ban on Russian seafood processed in other countries. Wild salmon season will begin to kick off in full swing in the next several weeks. Short Term: Price increasing

The fresh Chilean fillet market held unchanged. Supplies range adequate to fully adequate amid a fair demand. Offers continue to fluctuate among sellers. 2-3 sized fillets continue to have a higher supply compared to larger sizes. The market undertone is unsettled, with both higher and lower offers observed across the complex. Short Term: Firming Pricing

Norwegian Salmon market remains unchanged but the undertone is unsettled. Offers were reported to be light. Steady Pricing

The frozen tilapia market reports a full steady to firm undertone, experiencing continued supply challenges amid moderate demand on the market with premiums continuing to develop. Reports of higher replacement costs has added to the upwards pressure. Short Term: Prices increasing

The market for blue swimming crab meat continues full steady on colossal and jumbo lump as supplies of these sizes are adequate to barely adequate and higher offers are noted. Special and claw, on the other hand, are about steady to barely stead with a few lower offers noted. The remainder of the market is unchanged. Overall, mid-to-smaller sized crab offers range widely from seller to seller as individual inventory positions vary.

Nearby milk output is seasonally steady to higher across the country, with some parts noting the start of spring flush volumes. This has kept plenty of cheap milk available to processors in the short run despite March’s milk production report showing a YOY decline of 1%, marking the 9th consecutive month of lower YOY output. Spot loads remain at significant discounts to class, but not as massive as last year’s discounts. The market continues to closely monitor the HPAI outbreaks in dairy cows, and the impact to milk supplies, but without further reporting from dairy farmers it will be difficult to assess the true number of cases now that producers know how to handle sick animals. For now, there is still adequate milk availability heading into Spring Flush. Higher butterfat content in the milk has kept cheap cream coming to market, but expectations for better Class II and III demand in the coming weeks could start to tighten up availability.

The butter market is struggling to push higher as record highs for this time of year and strong churn rates have kept enough butter coming to market. The USDA’s updated cold storage report this week showed March butter stocks growing by another 19 million pounds from February (more than average) and now 2.3% higher YOY. However, after back to back years of record highs in the fall, end users remain fearful of not having enough contracted, prompting stronger nearby order interest and keeping the market supported near the recent highs. The most recent production data showed butter output up 2% from the prior year (after accounting for leap year) and reports throughout March would suggest another YOY increase next month. Nearby, the market is still noting extremely strong churn rates across the country and adequate to abundant cream availability as churns have been running essentially at capacity to take advantage. If supplies continue to build to even more comfortable levels the next few months then we may not need a retest of the highs from the last 2 years.

The cheese markets have pushed to new calendar year highs but are starting to run out of momentum as further buying interest dries up. Longer term, competitive export prices in the U.S. will limit downside opportunity, but upside risk will be more dependent on domestic demand improving from more mundane levels in 2023. The updated cold storage report showed that cheese stocks remain burdensome, but that March American style cheese was slightly lower than February and now 0.1% lower than 2023. The USDA reported cheese production for February was -0.6% YOY (after accounting for leap year), with Cheddar continuing to be the least desirable production for producers coming in 7.2% below last year’s levels. Higher prices of late and the seasonal upswing in American style output into the summer should reverse the lower output in recent months and help temper further upside given domestic offtake has been running well below prior year levels, especially at the foodservice level.

The shell egg market is under pressure from the seasonally weaker demand following the Easter holiday. Prices had held onto the higher values in recent weeks due to HPAI cases reported in the laying flock, but its clear now that slower demand is more than offsetting the loss of those birds. There have now been 4 laying flock outbreaks so far this month, impacting 8.4 million layers, and reports of another outbreak in Michigan this week. The ongoing risk to the laying flock population into the spring is limiting downside, but prices are still too lofty for this time of year. With seasonally slower demand into Q2, the availability of shell eggs has improved from historically tight levels, increasing 1.5% this past week. From a seasonal perspective, we are now at time of year when prices start to feel the pressure from warmer temps and the loss of holiday and baking season demand. Cage free inventories have seen impressive increases the past 3 weeks, rising to the highest levels on record. The need to build cage free production out West should keep cage free values trading at a premium to conventional, but at a much more sustainable level that the $2+ premium earlier this year.

Soybean oil values are chopping around their recent lows and have struggled to push much lower. NOPA reported their U.S. March domestic soybean crush estimate at a monthly record of 196.4 million bushels. End of March soybean oil stocks were put at 1.851 billion pounds, up from 1.690 billion in February and above the average trade estimate of 1.792 billion. Stocks are now exactly where they were last year at this time. Spring demand is off to a slower than expected start for both fuel and food while alternative feedstocks for renewable diesel remain cheap. The recent turn lower in the palm oil market has also contributed to the April drop in soybean oil prices.

The spot canola seed futures moved lower again last week, continuing to follow the lead of the soybean oil. The spot RBD canola oil basis offers were mostly steady last week as demand remains solid for Canadian canola oil for food and Bio production out West. Dry weather in western Australia is beginning to cause some crop concerns there while Canadian canola exports are currently over 30% lower this season vs. last.

Palm oil futures are sharply lower this past week and have now given up more than 50% of the large gains posted in Q1. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated end of March palm oil stocks at 1.715 million metric tons, below the average trade estimate of 1.792 million and down from 1.920 million at the end of February. The number was still above the 1.673 million reported in March of 2023 and the highest for the month in four years. Palm continues to normalize after trading at a rare premium to SBO on the world market.

Mexico

• Volume is down as the Caborca season in Northern Mexico wraps up
• Limited harvesting near the Baja peninsula will provide temporary supplies as crops move south
• Jumbo and large sizes will be snug over the next seven to ten days
• Markets are set to rise before dropping off with new crop supplies out of Central Mexico in late May

Other Regions

• Peruvian volume is available and helping to supplement industry supplies
• Domestic asparagus is available from California and the Pacific Northwest
• Michigan supplies are arriving early and are available for shipment in early May

Although green bell pepper growers are transitioning to new crop regions on both coasts, markets remain low. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• Production is expected to run steady in Sonora, Mexico until mid-May and then taper off; quality is good with the occasional bruising and misshaped pepper being seen during pack out
• The California desert season has starting
  • Early supplies are limited
  • Jumbo and extra-large sizes are most plentiful
  • Quality is excellent
• Florida growers are transitioning from Immokalee to Plant City
  • Recent favorable weather is yielding great quality
  • Packer label may be substituted during East Coast transitions through the month of May
• Expect low prices to persist over the next two weeks

Red Bells

• Mexican volume (crossing in Nogales, Arizona) is adequately meeting demand; however, quality is mixed
  • Hot weather in Culiacan is dehydrating older fields and causing over ripeness
  • Newer fields are exhibiting much better quality and will be shipped through early June
• Canadian greenhouse production has increased in both Ontario and British Columbia
  • Quality is excellent
  • Large sizes dominate crops
• The California desert season will start with limited stocks at the end of May, weather permitting
• Expect steady prices at low levels through next week

ESS Cauliflower is sporadically available; packer label is being substituted as necessary to fill orders.

• Supplies are tight and prices are elevated in the Salinas and Santa Maria Valley growing regions
• Yields are down amid cooler weather, with overcast skies and drizzling precipitation
• Quality issues are also on the rise, further reducing yields at the field level
• Elevated levels of dark spotting, mildew pressure, and off-color smaller heads have been reported
• Cool conditions will continue to push markets higher through the end of this week as tight supplies endure
• Prices should peak early next week before inflecting downward with warmer, dryer weather on the way

Celery markets are rising with strong demand and light supplies.

• MFC Celery is available from Oxnard, California
• Additional growing regions are supplementing Oxnard supplies
  • Santa Maria, California production will continue year-round
  • Belle Glade, Florida will harvest through early May
• The Oxnard season will end in mid-June; Salinas harvests will begin early- to mid-June
• Quality is excellent in all regions; disease pressure is minimal
• Expect markets to remain elevated for the next two weeks; prices are expected to inch down as the Mother’s Day holiday demand subsides

Markets continue to rise. Green leaf and romaine prices are starting the week much higher; iceberg is slightly above last week’s levels. Expect tight supplies and volatile markets for the rest of April.

• MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights
• Recent rain and cold weather, followed by warm weather, have increased quality issues
  • Anthracnose, a fungal disease favored by cool, wet weather is affecting many romaine lots to varying degrees
  • Growth cracking, mildew, and sun scald are impacting iceberg; anthracnose has also been found in some fields
• Low weights are being observed throughout the industry as crews must remove damaged outer leaves at harvest
• Markets are expected to continue rising this week; light rain is forecast for the Salinas Valley at the end of the week

Honeydew supplies are increasing; prices are lower. Cantaloupe supplies are adequate; markets are stable.

Cantaloupes

• Imported melons are arriving by vessel from Central America into domestic ports; shipments will begin to taper off in May ahead of the start of the domestic season
• Quality is good; soft fruit, bruising, and inconsistent ripeness are occasional issues in some lots
• Stocks are dominated by 9-count sizes; 12-count and smaller size melons are limited
• Expect steady markets for the next 7-10 days
• Domestic product from the Arizona-California desert growing region will be available for loading the week of May 13

Honeydews

• Imported melons are continuing to ship from Mexico and Central America
• Mexican harvests are increasing; prices are lower
• Quality is good; inconsistent ripeness, and bruising are occasional issues
• Central American supplies are currently dominated by 5- and 6-count melons; Mexican supplies are predominately 6-and 8-count sizes
• Expect steady markets over the next 7-10 days
• Domestic product from the Arizona-California desert growing region will be available for loading the week of May 20

The Pacific Northwest storage crop season will wrap up this week. Moving forward, fresh-run supplies will be shipped out of the California desert region. Fresh-run onions are also available out of Mexico and South Texas.

Pacific Northwest

• MFC Onions are available in Washington
• Remaining storage supplies are mainly yellow; reds are extremely limited
• The season will end this week

Mexico and Texas

• Texas-grown MFC Yellow and Red Onions are available
• Mexican yellow and white onions are also crossing into South Texas
• Overall quality is very good; occasional bruising and mechanical damage are minor issues
• Yellow and white onion markets are lower; red onions are extremely tight with rising prices and strong demand
• Spring onions possess higher water content and lower acids, producing sweeter flavor but shorter shelf-life

California

• MFC Onions are available in the California desert region
• Yellow and white stocks are sufficient; red onions are extremely limited
• Yellow onion markets are soft, white prices are steady, and red markets are climbing
• Quality is very good with some excess skin in early fresh crop lots

The California Navel season is projected to wrap up in late June. California Valencia production has started in a limited manner. Small sizes (113- and 138-count oranges) are expected to remain extremely tight for Navels and Valencias.

Navels

• MFC and Markon ESS Navel Oranges are available
• Overall supplies of 113- and 138-count sizes will remain extremely limited through the remainder of the Navel season
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders for small sizes
• Late Navel varieties are expected to be available until mid- to late June
• Quality is good; Brix levels are 10 to 12

Valencias

• MFC and ESS Valencia Oranges are available
• Suppliers have begun shipping limited quantities of Valencia oranges; the season is expected to ramp up in mid-June
• Small sizes (113- and 138-count oranges) will remain extremely tight through the entire Valencia season; large sizes (56- and 88-count oranges) are most prevalent
• Early production will require no gassing as color is ideal; expect gassing to be required in July/August when Valencias start to regreen from heat
• Quality is very good; Brix levels are 12 to 14

Elevated round tomato markets persist due to snug supplies in Mexico and Florida. The Roma variety has slightly better availability. MFC Tomatoes are available.

• Mexico is the main growing region
  • Round, Roma, grape, and cherry tomato yields are low
  • Quality is declining; previous poor weather and drought conditions have fatigued plants and reduced volume
  • Growers in the northern region of Obregon have begun harvesting new crop Roma fields this week
  • Demand is strong due to the Cinco De Mayo (May 5) holiday
  • Baja’s Roma season will start in a limited manner on May 1
    • Peak volume will be reach in late May
    • Grape and cherry tomato production will begin in mid-May
• Supplies have increased slightly in Florida’s Ruskin/Palmetto region; peak volume is expected by May 5
  • Large-size stocks dominate the round and Roma crops
  • Smaller sizes and lower grades are available in Immokalee while that season wraps up
• The California harvest is expected to start om late June/early July
• Expect higher round and Roma prices over the next two weeks